Can Renewables Replace Nuclear Power?

Most of the EU’s 211 operational nuclear plants were built in the 1970s and 1980s and were designed to last around 40 years, so many are due to close.

But with the EU committed to decarbonising its energy sector, and nuclear power able to act as a low carbon source providing electricity around the clock, policymakers face a choice: either spend billions eking out a few extra years of generation, or close the plants and build potentially expensive replacements.

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2014 suggests that without swift measures, nuclear power in Europe could be entering its twilight years. It warns that unless policymakers make immediate plans to replace ageing plants, by the mid-2050s, nuclear power across the globe could become a thing of the past. Even if the plants’ lives were extended by ten years, Europe could still face a nuclear power crunch sometime in the 2030s.

 Ageing plants

Forty years is a typical lifespan for a nuclear power plant built in the 70s or 80s. While it’s quite common for plants to have their operational lifetime extended, particularly in the US, many close earlier. At the moment, only four new plants are under construction, adding 4.8 gigawatts of capacity to the grid. If that’s the only new nuclear that’s built – unlikely, as there are plans for more – Europe would lose 120 gigawatts of nuclear generation capacity by the mid-2050s

The International Energy Agency says that worldwide nuclear capacity must more than double by 2050 in order to help limit global warming to 2 °C, the target set by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to avert catastrophic consequences. As of late 2015 a total of 66 reactors are under construction worldwide, the highest number in 25 years. (There are 437 civilian nuclear reactors operating worldwide, according to the World Nuclear Association.)

Unfortunately, in the U.S. the nuclear industry is headed in the other direction. While there are now five reactors under construction, a number of plants have shut down or been designated for closure, including at least three scheduled for shutdown in the next five years. The average age of the U.S. nuclear fleet is 35 years, near the end of most operating licenses. According to the Nuclear Energy Institute, a dozen plants, with a combined capacity of 12,189 megawatts, are scheduled for shutdown between now and 2025.

If those plants go offline it would mean the emission of an additional 67.3 million tons of carbon dioxide a year (to replace the lost power with fossil-fuel generation). Many of these plants, though, will likely keep operating, thanks to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s practice of granting new licenses to plants that have outlived their original operating licenses. Most of the 100 nuclear plants now generating power in the U.S. were originally licensed for 35 to 40 years of operation; now the NRC is issuing new permits, in 20-year increments, that will allow them to keep running for 60 or even 80 years. Eighty reactors (many plants comprise more than one reactor) have already had their licenses renewed, and many of the remaining ones are likely to come up for renewal in the next decade.

The catastrophe

Since nuclear power was invented, there were two catastrophic accidents (level 7): Chernobyl in 1986, and 2011 in Fukushima. Both accidents saw a complete meltdown of one (Chernobyl) or more (Fukushima) core reactors.

In both cases, the outer walls of the reactor-building were destroyed by hydrogen explosions and nuclear substances could freely escape. In both cases, vast areas were contaminated. In Chernobyl, about 50 people died shortly after the accident from radiation sickness. Different estimates about the long term effects assume that there may have been tens of thousands of fatalities due to cancer.

Also for Fukushima, there are competing estimates ranging from 15 victims to thousands of possible victims, which the accident may yet claim, due to increasing cancer rates.

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